Saturday, Aug 23, 2008
Posted on Sat, Aug. 23, 2008
Energy exaggeration is blowing in the wind
By E. THOMAS McCLANAHAN
The Kansas City Star
T. Boone Pickens has made quite a stir with his commercials about the need for wind power. For an oilman, he's putting down a big bet on renewable
energy.
His plan: Use wind power to replace much of the natural gas now used to generate electricity. Then shift that gas to cars and stop paying so much for foreign oil.
Sounds good, but on the scale that Pickens envisions, this is a pipe dream.
Certainly wind power has grown rapidly in the last few years. The Department of Energy says wind could be providing up to 20 percent of our electricity needs by 2030.
Is that a realistic prediction? No.
As wind turbines spread, opposition will increase. The resistance to wind farms in Kansas' Flint Hills tallgrass prairie region a few years ago was only a foretaste.
Wind power is often portrayed as a feel-good substitute for big power plants, but it has severe limitations; its performance, obviously, is as fickle as the wind. Because of that, wind farms must still be backed up by conventional power in case the wind fails.
"You can predict some changes in the wind broadly but not second-by-second," said Robert Michaels, a professor of economics at California State University, Fullerton, who has studied the issue. "Depending on the wind, (a wind farm) will be generating between 15 and 35 percent of its potential, relative to what it would be if the wind was available steadily all day." (Michaels has done research for a group opposing a wind installation in Vermont.)
He notes that in 2006, during the five highest peak hours of demand, California's wind farms were producing at only about 12 percent of capacity. When the power is most needed - in the afternoon - the wind often doesn't blow steadily enough for turbines to reach their peak output.
So what drew Pickens to this business?
One of his companies, Mesa Power LLP, recently put in an order for $2 billion in wind turbines. I have no doubt that he is genuinely concerned about America's foreign-oil bill, but he's also a canny businessman.
Pickens seeks to take advantage of the generous subsidies that currently make wind power a good investment. The most significant of these giveaways grants producers a 1.9-cent tax credit for every kilowatt hour produced by a wind turbine. In addition, wind farms can take accelerated depreciation and some local or state governments may award other tax breaks.
What about the other aspect of the Pickens plan? Will large numbers of American motorists switch to natural gas as a motor fuel? That's also highly unlikely. Natural gas is cleaner and cheaper than gasoline, but converting a car to run on the fuel can cost thousands of dollars, and there are other limitations as well.
Natural gas fueling stations are currently scarce. And as a New York Times story recently noted, a natural-gas car may operate fairly cheaply but it can't go as far. The only natural-gas car on the market, the Honda Civic GX, has a range of only 250 miles after a fill. The market for this car is mainly commuters and institutional fleet operators.
Wind energy will have a growing place in America's energy portfolio, but its niche probably won't approach the Energy Department's 20 percent prediction.
Some point to Denmark, which does produce 20 percent of its electrical power from wind. But, said Michaels: "The Denmark story is basically a fable. They can do that because the whole Danish system is part of the northern European grid."
The larger European grid provides the backup needed for wind power's erratic performance. In addition, the country exports nearly half of the wind power it produces, largely because it comes at the wrong time - when it isn't needed. When the country needs additional power, it's forced to pay premium prices. Denmark, Michaels says, has the highest power bills in Europe.
As wind farms spread, more people are likely to object to them simply on aesthetic grounds. On a recent trip to Colorado, we drove through one of Kansas' newest wind farms, and I found the appearance of the windmills jarring. Both times we drove through, by the way - coming and going - the turbines were becalmed.
