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Aug 2 11 8:05 PM
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Aug 3 11 12:57 AM
The last picture in this trailer seems to indicate that Heinberg is a member of the flat earth society. The trailer ends with a picture of ships falling down the cliff representing the edge of the flat earth. Indeed, the two concepts "flat earth" and "finiteness of the planet" necessarily lead to the scary idea of a cliff. Our friend Downwinder, after watching this movie, couldn't help but had to respond by posting another prediction of an impending cliff: Richard Duncan's famous Olduvai energy cliff setting in next year in 2012.
Heinberg is also deceiving in one very important point. The present recession in the US is not the result of a decline of resources. Oil production has not peaked yet. Our crisis is the result of a totally different crisis: The US economy is consuming more than it produces and it is doing this since decades. This lead to a debt crisis where the levels of debt in all parts of our society start to paralyze every economic activity. Our elites are victims of the illusion that they have tons of money so they do not have to work. The poor on the other hand can not work because of lacking education and/or insufficient health. Politicians waste precious time because they do not understand the depth of the problem. A tragedy in the making. And Heinberg tries to make money by publishing books repeating the mantra "it's all due to scarcity of oil". If that were true, then China and India could not grow as spectacularly as they do. An inconvenient truth for Heinberg.
What we desperately need is people who really understand what is going on and who are capable of explaining the unfolding story in such a convincing way that the country can start moving in the right direction. In my opinion, that direction is "produce more and consume less".
Aug 3 11 12:04 PM
The present recession in the US is not the result of a decline of resources. Oil production has not peaked yet. Our crisis is the result of a totally different crisis: The US economy is consuming more than it produces and it is doing this since decades...
Our pending energy supply contraction= no economic growth= insufficient debt
service= chaos + oilwars.
Aug 3 11 4:27 PM
Aug 3 11 4:38 PM
thanks for your comments. I just finished reading the link you posted on US oil shale production. According to this article, total US oil production (including shale oil) is predicted to be at 7.9 mbd next year (2012). If true, this would mean that after the peak US oil production in 1970 at 10 mbd, US oil production rate is down only 20% since the peaking 40 years ago. In other words, US oil production declined during the past 40 years at an average rate of 0.5% per year. That is a stunning accomplishment!
You know it better than I do: While conventional crude may have peaked in 2005, total oil production includes many other oils in addition to crude. The result is that oil production is far from peaking. We are indeed on a plateau which may last well until 2015 or perhaps even 2016 (depending on which oil expert we chose to believe in). The rise in oil prices is only partly a reflection of scarcity. Adjusted for the growth of the money supply (of which the simplest measure is the national debt ceiling), oil prices are not higher today than they were twenty years ago. In fact, if you measure the price of oil not in Dollars, but in gold, then oil is as cheap today as it ever was. The price of oil in Dollars is more of an illusion that a trustworthy indicator of economic value.
If you do not like the example of China and India which I quoted as countries which grow at rates of close to 10%, take a trip to Europe. During the past few weeks I have been driving on German highways. Doing so, I did not notice any sign of gasoline scarcity. Traffic is dense and moving at speeds between 80 to 100 mph. That by itself is proof that gas is still plenty and cheap. However, I did see in Germany lots of wind mills and photo voltaic panels, especially in southern Germany which has more sun light than northern Germany. So the Germans do anticipate the future end of fossil fuels and invest heavily into renewable energy.
The more I think about it, the more I am convinced that the present crisis has nothing to do with the scarcity of oil. It is a repetition of the debt crisis which caused the great depression in the 1930's. The debt to GDP ratio is close to 400% today exceeding that ratio in 1929. The developed world has accumulated too much debt. The noise about peak oil is just a distraction from the true problem we are facing.
By the way, the fact that this board died at the onset of the financial crisis in 2008 is perhaps further proof that the crisis has not much to do with oil but everything with excessive debts.
Aug 3 11 8:37 PM
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